With increasing sales of electric cars in Europe, the continent is positioning itself ahead of the USA and China as a hotspot for e-mobility. According to an analysis by management consultancy McKinsey, this is also due to a model offensive by European automakers: 600 new electric models are planned by 2024. German manufacturers are expected to be the global market leaders for electric cars as early as 2021.
In 2019, a total of 600,000 battery-electric cars and plug-in hybrids were sold in Europe, 44 percent more than in the previous year. In China, however, the market for electric vehicles grew by only 3 percent to 1.2 million electric vehicles sold. In the US, sales even fell by 12 percent to 300,000 vehicles, reports McKinsey in the current edition of the "Electric Vehicle Index." A total of 2.3 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2019, 9 percent more than in 2018. Nicolai Müller, Senior Partner in McKinsey’s Cologne office, comments on the report:
"China remains the world's largest market, and the supply of local Chinese products has increased significantly. However, demand in Europe has surged. Further momentum is expected—namely from the increasing product range with which manufacturers aim to meet CO2 limits."
EU pressure promotes e-mobility
European carmakers are also trying to sell more electric cars because they are under pressure from the EU. The regulation on CO2 fleet consumption (the average CO2 emissions of a manufacturer's new cars sold) requires manufacturers to bring more than 2 million electric vehicles onto the market to avoid fines. At the beginning of 2020, the permitted fleet consumption was reduced again, from 130 grams of CO2 per kilometer to 95. The EU plans to limit fleet emissions to 59.4 grams of CO2 per kilometer by 2030.
With over 110,000 electric cars sold in 2019, Germany was the third-largest e-mobility market worldwide and the largest in Europe in absolute terms. However, in terms of market share, Germany is only at the European average with 2.8 percent. According to McKinsey, Norway leads the market with a market share of almost 45 percent, well ahead of Iceland (22 percent) and the Netherlands (13 percent).
Tesla is the global leader in manufacturing — still
With 368,000 electric cars sold, Tesla 2019 the global leading electric car manufacturer. With BMW (133,000 electric cars sold) and VW (85,000), two German brands are in the top 10. Compact vehicles, with a 44 percent market share, and SUVs (30 percent) were particularly popular with customers. In addition, the trend toward purely battery-electric vehicles (in English: Battery Electric Vehicle = BEV): 74 percent of all electric vehicles sold in 2019 were BEVs, while plug-in hybrids only accounted for 26 percent of the market.
However, Tesla faces concerns about its leading position in the future. The industry has announced 600 new electric car models by 2024: Chinese automakers lead the way with 169 models, followed by Japan (145) and Germany (102). According to McKinsey, the share of German manufacturers in global electric car production will increase from 18 percent last year to 29 percent in 2024. This could put Germany, with over 1.7 million electric vehicles produced, as early as 2021—just ahead of China.
Batteries in the focus of manufacturers
Parallel to the model announcements, manufacturers have also been building up battery capacity. Up to 1,000 GWh of production capacity is expected to be created by 2025, the majority of which will be in China (up to 610 GWh), Europe (up to 290 GWh), and the USA (150 GWh). As in the automotive market, the momentum is strongest in Europe, with an annual growth rate of up to 47 percent, according to the McKinsey report.
About the study
The McKinsey-developed Electric Vehicle Index Since 2010, the index has been examining the 15 most important countries for electromobility at the country level. The countries examined are: China, Germany, Finland, France, Great Britain, India, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, and the USA. The index examines both the market and industry aspects.
