ADespite all the gloomy economic forecasts, Bitkom expects the upswing in the IT and telecommunications (ICT) sector to continue in 2020. According to the industry association, in addition to revenues, the number of jobs is also expected to increase significantly. However, Bitkom is calling on policymakers to rethink their approach to keep pace with international competition.
The business climate in the ICT sector has recently brightened considerably. In October, the Bitkom-Ifo Digital Index stood at 19.2 points — the lowest value in seven years. By the end of the year, the business climate index had risen from Bitkom However, it still stands at 26.9 points, making up for the decline since May 2019. The positive framework conditions are also reflected in the ICT industry's revenue expectations: The German market for IT, telecommunications, and consumer electronics is expected to grow by 1.5 percent to €172.2 billion this year. Last year, Bitkom also expected growth of 1.5 percent. This forecast was significantly exceeded: Revenue increased by 2.0 percent to €169.6 billion in 2019. Bitkom President Achim Berg says:
"The stable growth of the Bitkom industry is a reflection of the increasing digitalization of business, government, and society. This applies especially to the generally very difficult economic year of 2019, which was marked by trade conflicts, economic downturn, and the Brexit dispute."
Individual ICT segments are developing very differently
The largest ICT sub-segment, information technology, continues to gain importance. According to Bitkom calculations, revenues in this sector will increase by 2.7 percent to €95.4 billion in 2020. The software sector will see the strongest growth, increasing by 6.4 percent to €27.6 billion. According to Bitkom, the telecommunications market, the second-largest ICT segment, is expected to grow by 0.9 percent to €68.8 billion in 2020. The third and smallest market segment, consumer electronics, continues to decline. According to Bitkom's forecast, revenues will fall by 7.0 percent to €8.0 billion in 2020—this would represent the third consecutive year of revenue decline. Berg says:
"The consumer electronics market is currently largely saturated. Although prices are almost stable, consumers currently prefer to invest in smartphones or new services rather than in consumer electronics devices."
However, there is positive news from the job market. Over the course of 2020, 39,000 additional jobs are expected to be created in the German ICT sector. This would mean that the number of people employed in the sector would exceed 1.2 million for the first time. Last year, IT and communications companies created 42,000 additional positions. This brings the total number of new jobs in this sector to more than 200,000 since 2016.
“The German system needs a restart”
Despite all the positive developments, the digital association fears that Germany is currently falling behind international digital pioneers such as Denmark, Singapore, China, and the USA. Bitkom has therefore summarized its demands for policymakers in a "Digital Strategy 2025."
“The German system needs more than an update, it needs a restart,”
said Achim Berg. As part of its digital strategy, Bitkom is focusing on four areas of action: The digital association believes that education policy should be more closely under the federal government's responsibility so that uniform standards can be set. The association also calls for more recognition of continuing education. Second, Bitkom demands greater investment in infrastructure. Third, public administration must be digitized from the ground up. Fourth, policymakers should rethink data protection and the legitimate use of data in order to achieve a functioning balance between the two.
